![]() ![]() Slide 10: 'data experiments' doesn't make a lot of sense - we'd typically say 'data analysis', and you're actually just presenting the datasets they are using. Folks won't necessarily understand the conclusions bullet points until we've talked about the paper Motivation Cause of 2010 Russian Heat Wave: What were the primary causes for 2010 Western Russian heat wave? Predictability of Russian 2010 Heat Wave: Based on natural and human forcings and observed regional climate trends, could the heat wave have been predicted? Slide 9: generally recommend not presenting the conclusions first, rather present motivation and methods, and we'll talk through the conclusions by looking at figures. Division Director for the CIRES and IPCC member.Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.Understanding Statistics: Mean and Variability An increase in the mean raised heat wave frequency Increases in the variability raise hot and cold event frequencies Changes in mean or variability affect heat wave frequency differently Slide 7: 'comparison' is showing a change in shape (there's a change in mean and I believe a change in the skew) - would label correctly, or not include. Magnified by sun angle,clear skies, and drought (latent heat) slide 6: remember that you'll want to be able to explain the heat dome, so make sure you all understand it!.High pressure in mid/upper atmosphere (5km).The World Meteorological Organization considers a climatic event a heat wave if the local maximum daily temperature exceeds the historical average by 5☌ for 5 consecutive days.Recommend replacing their y-axis with one that correctly describes the data 55,000 deaths 25% annual crop production decrease 15 billion USD loss to the Russian economy Temperature Anomalies (☌) Off of average temperature 11/1/09-10/31/10 Average climatological seasonal cycle Above average temperature Below average temperatures *National Climatic Data Center: Global Summary of the Day 40,000 deaths + forest fires, glacier floods, crop destroyed History Channel: Ģ010 Russian Heat Wave slide 5: note that this graph (and many of the other graphs) are actually temperature anomalies, which the authors do not say in their caption. Historical Heat Waves 1858, London’s Great Stink 1936, North America Great Depression, drought, dust storms Record temperatures in 12 states, clearing 120oF 5,000 US and 1,100 Canadian deaths 1995, Chicago 106oF = average Arizona temperatures 700 deaths in 5 days, infrastructure break down 2003, Western Europe Hottest summer since 1500 A.D. (2012): Reconciling 1 & 2 Samenow article (2012): Public Perception Debate: Has global warming had an effect on heat waves? (2011): Natural Variability & “Omega” Blocking Rahmstorf & Coumou (2011): Warming & Frequency Otto et al. Presentation Outline Introduction: What is a heat wave? 2010 Russian Heat Wave Dole et al. Gregorio Gomez Robert Sauermann Ben Lynton Heat waves
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